Priced In
Meridian Harbor LogisticsFictional companyAs of 2026-02-28Engine priced-in-engine/1.0.0
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Step three

What would have to be true?

The model below is one route to the target. The map shows the others. Many different combinations of growth and margin can support the same value, which is the point.

Modeled enterprise value

$1,995.3m

USD millions, unrounded internally

Target enterprise value

$2,243.2m

From $34.00 per share on 2026-02-27

Value gap

-$247.9m

-11.0% of the target — the model falls short

Value per share

$30.19

Equity $1,962.1m over 65,000,000 shares

Evaluating 41 by 41 combinations…

Grid evaluated in a Web Worker. That figure is what was measured here and now, not a guaranteed target.

Solve

Growth required to reach the target

Holds the year-five margin at 17.0% and every other input fixed, brackets a sign change inside the map bounds and bisects. The bounds are never widened silently.

Free cash flow to the firm

Five-year forecast and terminal period

USD millions
FCFF = NOPAT + D&A − capex − change in operating working capital. Cash tax = max(EBIT, 0) × tax rate.
YearRevenueMarginEBITCash taxNOPATD&ACapexΔ NWCFCFFDiscounted
1
2026-12-31
$1,113.0m15.0%$167.0m$41.7m$125.2m$37.8m$51.2m$5.3m$106.6m$98.2m
2
2027-12-31
$1,168.7m15.5%$181.1m$45.3m$135.9m$39.7m$53.8m$5.6m$116.3m$98.8m
3
2028-12-31
$1,227.1m16.0%$196.3m$49.1m$147.2m$41.7m$56.4m$5.8m$126.7m$99.2m
4
2029-12-31
$1,288.4m16.5%$212.6m$53.1m$159.4m$43.8m$59.3m$6.1m$137.8m$99.5m
5
2030-12-31
$1,352.9m17.0%$230.0m$57.5m$172.5m$46.0m$62.2m$6.4m$149.8m$99.6m
Terminal
Period 6 onward
—17.0%——$175.9mreinvestment $29.3m—$146.6m$1,500.1m

Terminal share of enterprise value

75.2%

$1,500.1m of $1,995.3m

Year 5 to terminal FCFF jump

-$3.2m

-2.1% of the year-5 figure

Terminal reinvestment = terminal NOPAT × terminal growth ÷ terminal ROIC, and it replaces explicit capex, D&A and working capital for the period after year 5. It is not subtracted twice.

Equity bridge

From enterprise value to equity value

As of 2025-12-31
Enterprise value (operating)
Discounted FCFF plus terminal value
$1,995.3m
Plus excess cash
Excess only; required operating cash is excluded
$192.8m
Plus non-operating assets
Assets outside the operating model
$14.0m
Less financial debt
Operating lease liabilities are not counted as debt
-$240.0m
Less preferred equity$0.0m
Less minority interest$0.0m
Equity value$1,962.1m
Value per share$30.19

Changing debt or excess cash moves equity value and leaves operating enterprise value untouched. Borrowing to buy back shares is not value creation in this model.

How to read this

  • Value gap = modeled enterprise value − target enterprise value. Percent gap divides that by the target, which must be positive.
  • Cells within one percent of the target form the near-target band, outlined on the map. That band is a set of possibilities, not a forecast, and no single cell is the market’s view.
  • Growth is not free here: it pulls capital expenditure and working capital along with it through the ratios in the rail.
  • Combinations the model cannot value — a non-positive terminal profit, or a WACC at or below terminal growth — are hatched and labelled rather than coloured as though they were valid.

Scenario

Base case

Switch scenarios in the header, or compare them side by side on the brief. Editing the rail changes only the scenario currently selected.